I would like to think about some comments I have received about the nature and political importance of Climate Change in response to my post Climate change, change management and the need for political consensus, I would like to provide my views about some of the really useful comments made.
The Climate is changing
I believe that our climate changing, I believe that it is changing rapidly because of human behaviour.
I believe this for many reasons but I am willing accept the evidence of the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change who in their 4th Report restated these conclusions:
- Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
- Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations.
- The probability that this is caused by natural climatic processes alone is less than 5%.
- World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 °C (2.0 and 11.5 °F) during the 21st century.
In many ways it doesn’t matter whether or not climate change is caused by human behaviour, what matters is :
- What do we expect the impact of this climate change on our environment to be within 10 years, by mid century, and the by the end of the century?
- How do we expect these changes to impact on; our own lives and those of our families, the resilience of our communities and society, and the global community?
- Are our political priorities right today to address the above 2 questions?
But climate change is natural and it has changed many times?
This is absolutely right, such an event occurred 55 million years ago in the Eocene period when global temperatures increased by up to 7 °C. This may have occurred due to the heat generated by tectonic activity that caused the creation of the Himalayas. This event was very rapid in geological terms it may have taken 100,000 years. This event caused a sharp extinction event that was significant especially in the Oceans, it also created a high turnover of mammal species on land, it was however not an extinction event close to the order that caused dinosaurs to die out.
The Eocene event was quick by geological terms, what is happening now seems to be occurring on a timescale that can be measured by human lifetimes. In previous climate change events species of plant and animals had time to adapt to manage the change and even then the result for many was extinction.
What do we expect the impact of this climate change on our environment to be within 10 years, by mid century, and the by the end of the century?
- This is a difficult question to answer decisively but again the IPCC predicts that sea levels will rise between 0.2 and 0.6m by 2100, there is additional concern that the Greenland Icesheets are melting at an increasingly fast rate so sea levels could rise faster than this.
- The IPCC also suggests that there is high probability there will be frequent heatwaves, heavy rain, drought, increased frequency of tropical cyclones, and extreme high tides. These effects will not be distributed equally across the globe.
- This is a significant problem when we consider that 634 million people live within 30 ft of sea level, and 2/3 of the world’s cities with over 5 million people in them live within low lying coastal regions.
However Climate change is not the only problem we are facing:
- Population growth – there are 6.7 billion people estimated to be living on the planet. By 2042 global population is projected to be just under 9 million.
- The development of the Asian economies especially is causing the consumption levels of individuals to grow significantly thus amplifying the effect of population growth on the use of world resources.
- Peak oil – The estimations of when the oil reserves will peak and then decline range from 2005 to 2020. However in July 2007, the International Energy Agency predicted an oil crunch by 2012. ‘Oil looks extremely tight in five years time’, said the IEA’s Mid-Term Market Report, which predicted ‘prospects of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade’. This will obviously have a significant impact on the global food market both because of the global food distribution system and also the production of fertilisers required for our current system of intensive agriculture that require oil as part of the production process.
- Over the century we also have the collapse of bio-diversity and collapse of global fisheries, due to pollution, loss of habitat and over exploitation.
- Alongside this also needs to be considered the impact of the global economic system on debt, economic development and money supply.
How do we expect these changes to impact on; our own lives and those of our families, the resilience of our communities and society, and the global community?
Considering the list above it is hard to know where to start. Well if I am honest I can’t help starting at a personal level, with my children 2 of whom are still at school. I am really grateful that we live in the UK, are above sea level and away from the ocean, in a close rural relatively affluent community. However my work is with very vulnerable people who have disabilities who rely on a welfare state and resilient communities to live successful lives.
Focusing at a wider scale I am struck by the fact that all the factors listed above are inter-related, for example:
- The people in the poorest areas are most likely to be effected by climate change.
- Population growth is not equal and rates are highest where economic and social development is poorest, thus exaggerating global inequality.
- What impact will this growing inequality have on global social justice and cooperation. Won’t this increasing level of global inequality lead to increased anger, protest and violence?
- Responding to climate crises will take greater levels of energy usage at a time when available sources of easily transportable fuel supplies will become in ever shorter supply.
- Won’t competition for ever shrinking fuel, food and water resources will lead to conflict and global self interest rather than cooperation?
- Won’t we face immigration issues of a scale that are unprecedented compared with the past especially in the wake of ecological or social crises? We live in racially mixed societies now, will our social cohesion deal with the moral decisions that these issues will entail?
It seems to me that the debate about whether climate change is man made or not does not matter much. What is more important is what we do about this massive list of interconnected challenges to our global civil society that we in the UK depend on.
What should our political priorities be right now to equip us for these challenges?
In discussing this I want to use the list that was offered to me in a comment as things that need to be tackled before climate change:
- The economy – Absolutely but our economy has to deal with the issues of peak oil, a crisis in our food system (linked to oil, fear and speculation), and adapting to climate change. It is through addressing these issues that we can stimulate our economy. Germany, China, India, and increasingly the US are doing just this by investment in renewable energy at an impressive scale. The depression hit economies of the West in the 30’s re-started themselves through wartime industrial production, we have a similar opportunity with the renewables and energy efficiency given political vision and solid commitment.
- Inspiring people with aspiration through education - Education must prepare people for the world they will live within. The world our children and young people will lead will be very different from ours. Our education system must change if it is to prepare people as effective actors in this new world. A detailed understanding of planetary life systems, pure and applied science, communication technologies, citizenship, responsibility and ethics will all be necessary to navigate this world.
- Getting our population under control - This is absolutely essential and practice has shown us that the only effective way of doing this is by addressing issues of poverty and education especially of young women.
- Regaining our national sovereignty to take our own decisions - Again this is key, this chaotic world if it is to become stable must be made of sustainable but interdependent nations, regions, communities and individuals. Our extreme global division of labour has made us vulnerable. Our food system is a perfect example of this at all levels, food production has been exported abroad where costs are cheaper, international surpluses have been removed, speculation on food commodities has become acceptable, citizens have become consumers and have lost their ability to grow, and even prepare unprocessed food stuffs.
- Slimming down our obese public sector - Personal responsibility and community cohesiveness has declined and this has been compensated by the state and corporations. The challenges that we face will only be addressed by reversing the trend from consumers served by a ’service provider state’ to citizens working in partnership with local and national government to create sustainable lives and resilient communities.
- Coming up with sensible health provision services - Yes we have some key challenges here, we have a ageing population and a declining tax base to fund it. We are moving from a society where the many support the few, to one where the many will need to support the many. We will need to come up with a more locally owned, more health promotion orientated model for it to remain sustainable.
- A fair taxation system – Our tax system must be open, transparent and fair. It should tax activities that are harmful and incentivise activities that are helpful to a successful society. Taxation should also be used as a tool to ensure that prices of commodities represent their true cost economically, socially and environmentally. Thus the consumer can make more informed choices about the consequences of their actions.
- Restoration of personal and social responsibility - Yes a sustainable society is all about personal and social responsibility, the current challenges will only be met in a society where people recognise the consequences of their own actions and work together to come up with solutions that work for them. This may well need to be true in such disparate areas as food and energy production.
- Removing those who preach hatred of our country from our schools, the media, the public sector, and religious establishments - Our nation is beautiful, we have had a history based on courage, conviction, innovation and tolerance, however we have lost our way, our instincts and judgements have been dulled by consumption and the promise of easy affluence. We have no agreed goals to pull together for, when we consider ourselves we see only our failings and we blame these on each other. We must work together to help us find collective solutions to these shared challenges and support each other in making the changes that are necessary.
- Restoring our standing and reputation in the world – you cannot act globally without this - We will restore our standing in the world when our collective national action advocates the creation of a fairer more just world. We need to work tirelessly at home and abroad to find solutions to the problems we all face. This will not be done through speeches and conferences, but will be done through water wells, mosquito nets, debt relief, the sharing of skills, technology, and collaborative research. A practical first step would be to ensure that we meet our commitments to the UN Millennium Development goals and commitments about debt relief.
Yes there are many issues we will need to tackle before climate change is addressed, but it must shape our responses to this world that Geoffrey Sach suggested is ‘Bursting at the Seams’.
As I have said before, the environment, social justice, and self interest are now issues which are colliding in front of our eyes. We have little time to respond.
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